The Right (Time) to Secede: Why Nationalist Parties Demand a Referendum for Independence When They Do

Many national minority parties demand independence; others pursue political autonomy instead. The main nationalist parties in consolidated democracies often go back and forth between one or another option. The Scottish Nationalist Party and the Catalan Convergència i Unió traditionally pushed decentralization over independence. Yet both parties spearheaded the call for a referendum of independence in their territories in 2014. In contrast, the Basque Nationalist Party, the Flemish Alliance and the Parti Québécoisexplicitly rallied independence in the past, yet they have all expressed reluctance towards it recently. What explains variation in the position on independence among the leading nationalist parties in these five regions? And when are they more likely to call for a referendum of independence?  

Most explanations for the wave of secessionism in Western democracies focus on regional economic interests, growing regional identities, or the failure to accommodate national diversity through decentralization. This paper argues that independence referenda take place due to the strategic calculations of the main nationalist party given the environment of political competition they face. I find that calls for a referendum take place when 1) more than one nationalist formation exist, 2) the main nationalist party is in government, and 3) it is electorally threatened by a state-wide (non-nationalist) parties.  This account challenges existing accounts and, contrary to conventional wisdom, nationalist parties do not call a referendum of independence to gain more power, but because they are afraid to lose it. Secessionism is a power-holding strategy rather than the goal of the referendum.