Saturday, March 15, 2014
Senate (Omni Shoreham)
After years of economic “crisis,” the recessions in Portugal, Spain and Italy may be bottoming out. Will their political systems return to business as usual? In all three countries, protest movements have erupted. Each formed in immediate response to the social and economic costs of internationally-mandated austerity programs, but are underpinned by a deeply institutionalized, if not constitutionally protected, insider-outsider system. My paper will argue that this divide will become a defining characteristic of each country’s political scene, though expressed differently. Only in Italy has a protest movement posed an immediate threat to the established and privileged party system. In Spain and Portugal, less than two generations removed from their democratic transitions, the impact may be more felt via greater abstentions, volatility, and single-issue mobilizations. However expressed, outsiders will remain at a serious disadvantage in pursuing their political and economic interests for the next generation.
