From Gorky Park to Gezi Park: Turkey's EU Accession Process

The paper argues that the EU’s policy towards Turkey has historically been influenced by Turkey’s geostrategic value. Ankara’s progress has been expedited at times when its geostrategic value was high; for example in 1963 and again in 1999-2004. The diminishing of Ankara’s geostrategic value after 2004 therefore also explains why Turkey-EU relations have stalled since the opening of accession negotiations.  It hypothesises therefore that the advent of the Arab Spring has re-emphasised Turkey’s geostrategic value to the EU and asks whether this can explain the EU’s tolerance of Turkey’s democratic failings. Empirically it uses a qualitative process tracing approach to provide a detailed causal account since 2005. Theoretically it argues that the EU and its member states do act geostrategically albeit within a normative context. Finally, metatheoretically it eschews charges of incommensurability by drawing on Critical Realism to argue that the true measure of scientific validity lies in the rigor of the evidence provided not the method used.