Popular Opinion and the Rise of Illiberal Political Actors and Regimes

The role of popular opinion in the emergence of illiberal political forces and regimes has been among the most consistently emphasized but least systematically explored aspects of politics in countries undergoing significant upheavals and transformations.  This paper argues that popular opinion trends play a critical role in the establishment of electoral authoritarianism – the most pervasive and resilient form of authoritarianism after the end of the Cold War. Using rich empirical evidence from post-Communist Russia, which has emerged as a prototypical case of electoral autocracy since the ascendance of Vladimir Putin, the paper shows that Russia’s illiberal turn was largely underwritten by genuine popular support owing to the unique structure of mass opinion that emerged after the country’s calamitous decline in the 1990s. In particular, it demonstrates that Putin’s regime consolidated its popularity by exploiting two key attitudinal trends: the demand for strong-armed leadership and stabilization after the prolonged political and socio-economic crisis, and the low reputation of the available oppositional alternatives. More broadly, the theoretical framework developed in this paper suggests that electoral authoritarianism is established and maintained by incumbents who preside over electorates favoring short-time stability and face widely discredited oppositions. This thesis has significant potential implications for the rise of illiberal political actors and regimes in other European countries, particularly in the wake of the financial crisis that swept the continent.