The role of the Eurozone crisis in the 2013 German federal election

European Union issues do not usually feature prominently in German national elections. Germany’s 2013 federal election was exceptional since voters consistently considered the Eurozone crisis the most important challenge facing their country between 2011 and 2013. While the main political parties tried to avoid politicizing this subject during the campaign, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) almost crossed the five percent threshold by filling the eurosceptic niche. This begs the question how (or even if) political parties sought to exploit the Eurozone crisis for electoral gains. What was the range of possibilities, and what factors determined parties' strategies? We find that prior expectations, as set by political leaders, condition retrospective voting. Setting high expectations incurs a cost in public support if the projected outcome is not reached. Conversely, setting low expectations is beneficial if the outcome is better than projected.