Sunday, March 16, 2014
Cabinet (Omni Shoreham)
Voting patterns in many central European countries have taken on a decidedly regional character in the decades following the collapse of Communism. Ukrainian elections show a consistent regional divide. Similar divides exist in Poland and Romania going back to some of the earliest post-Communist elections. Moreover, as the electoral systems continue to mature, the regional voting patterns appear to be solidifying rather than diminishing in significance and predictive power. It is not an exaggeration to say when it comes to predicting electoral outcomes in these three countries, the most important piece of information to know about a voter is the region of the country in which they reside. Most striking, these regional divides map closely onto the imperial boundaries that preceded the formation of the contemporary states. This paper will examine the possible sources of these regional divides by comparing the electorate within a 100 kilometer band on either side of the former imperial boundary. It uses a discontinuity-based research design and geocoded electoral and population data to isolate the distinctive features of the historical, imperial legacies that appear to be driving the regional voting patterns.
