Saturday, March 15, 2014
Congressional A (Omni Shoreham)
What determines social policy positions of political parties in advanced industrial democracies? Past research on welfare states has addressed similar questions with regard to social policy output, but has assumed that party positions towards social policies do not change. On the other hand, research on party responsiveness and spatial theories has acknowledged policy position change, but only recognizes changes in public opinion as influencing policy positions. This study argues that the social policy positions of parties vary over time and that these variations are determined by factors more diverse than previously suggested. Party policy positions are determined by changes in voter group demand, as well as economic context. Social policy positions are consequently best explained by a theory of constrained party choices. Incorporated in this theory is the argument that aggregating voter opinion to the national level, as it is done in most previous studies, is inappropriate. Parties must choose to accommodate the demands of certain voter groups, such as core supporters or uncommitted voters. A large-n study of social policy positions of massed-based parties in ten OECD countries in 1987-2010 serves to test the theory using new data on social policy positions, non-aggregated voter preferences and appropriate contextual measures. I find that major political parties are constrained in their social policy positions by voter group demand and economic context in 1987-2010, but that the mechanisms of both constraints differ by time period.
