A Leverage Fading Away: The European Union’s Conditionality in Turkey’s Democratization Process

European Union (EU) closely monitors the democratization process of candidate countries through its democratic conditionality based on specific accession criteria. The paper examines the main elements of political conditionality and the process of conditionality candidate countries had gone through in previous enlargement waves. The effect of EU’s democratic conditionality on Turkey’s political reform process is analyzed through the course of Turkey-EU relationship which dates back to 1959. The periodization covers three phases; pre-Helsinki period, post-Helsinki period and the period after the opening of the negotiations on 3 October 2005. The political reforms are summarized to figure out the effectiveness of EU’s conditionality.

The paper demonstrates the changing nature of the EU conditionality in time through different enlargement waves dependent on the global context and political and socioeconomic conditions of the parties involved. It also shows that EU’s political conditionality for Turkey has been most effective during the period from Turkey had been granted candidate status until the negotiations had started. After the start of the negotiations, the EU’s leverage in the political reform process and its credibility have been weakened as a result of stricter conditions brought before Turkey and the increasing political intervention of certain member states.