Elite Perceptions of Public Opinion As a Determinant of Early Transitional Justice Policies

Where transitional justice plays out in a democratizing state, as it is intended, public opinion should matter. The role of public opinion can be permissive or constraining, with elites regularly monitoring popular attitudes as they consider their personal support for policies for which they will ultimately be held to account. But in states emerging from repressive regimes, where various state and non-state institutions are weak and trust in them remains low, specific measures of public opinion may be less important than elite perceptions of public opinion. In this paper, I explore how such elite perceptions of public opinion, based on sources that range from personal contacts to media observation, can influence transitional justice policy. To study how perceptions of public opinion have played an important role in justice choices, I focus on three disparate cases including post-communist Poland and post-communist and post-war Serbia and Croatia. My findings are based on media analyses and elite interviews carried out in each of these three countries early on in the transition process.