The Consequences of Incongruence: Evidence from European Party Systems

The party politics literature typically finds that mainstream European political parties do a better job representing the voters on the general left-right dimension than niche parties. But does this left-right incongruence have an electoral cost for niche parties? Or are niche party voters more targeted, using issue-specific incongruence to punish their parties? Using data from expert surveys and the European Elections Studies, we evaluate whether party-level incongruence (i.e., how far a party is from its supporters) has electoral costs for parties, and if so, whether the electoral cost is different at national and European elections. We argue that niche parties suffer more when they are incongruent on specific issues while mainstream parties lose votes when they are incongruent on the general left-right dimension. Using data from expert surveys and the European Elections Studies, we evaluate whether party-level incongruence (i.e., how far a party is from its supporters) has electoral costs for parties at national and European elections.