European Integration: Three Models of the Future

Few scholars, politicians, or pundits would deny that the European Union today faces one of the most decisive moments in its history. In recent years there has been an outpouring of analysis predicting the prospects and future direction of European economic and political integration. The crisis has also exposed how rudimentary our theories in International Relations are in predicting the future. This paper makes no attempt to provide a definitive answer to the future of European integration. Instead, drawing from International Relations theory, it develops three possible models of the future of European integration. While political scientists cannot predict emerging political realities, our theories can illustrate possible trajectories. The paper develops models of enhanced economic and political integration; diminished integration; and a third model that sees Europe pragmatically responding to challenges as they arise. The paper then evaluates the likelihood of each model appearing in the future.