Economic Crises, Policy Preferences, and Political Coalitions: Evidence from Spain in the Eurozone Crisis

How has the ongoing Eurozone crisis affected policy preferences in the most afflicted countries? What explains why some citizens support austerity and Eurozone membership still, while others do not? In this study we test a variety of theories about such preferences and specifically present a new theory of the probability of “policy coalitions” forming during economic crises. In ongoing research we document a correlation between having lost income and job security due to the crisis with support for many anti-status quo policies. We build on this research that identifies within the Eurozone different factions of voters that support austerity and Eurozone exit. In particular, we hypothesize that degree of exposure to the crisis and prior beliefs about the welfare state will condition citizens’ policy preferences.  We will test these hypotheses with current survey data we have gathered as well as new survey data to be obtained in October 2014 from Spain, a country that has suffered greatly during the crisis. The results will have implications for understanding how the diffusion of the costs of the crisis directly affects policy preferences for ending the crisis.