Looking a Gift Horse in the Mouth: Analyzing the UK Fertility Boom Admist the New Hopes and Realities of Immigration, Fertility Behaviours and Nationalist Futures

Although chronic below-replacement birth rates continue to plague most European countries, the UK is now experiencing an enviable 'baby boom' that lead to a surprising 2008 reversal of long-term fertility projections by the UK Office of National Statistics. Yet, public responses to this gift of a delay in the urgency to address population aging by up to six decades have been more ambivalent than expected. Concerns on how to respond to the imminent need to meet expanding demands for social welfare and educational services accompany less expressed responses to details on this exceptional fertility growth. Studies by the Migration Observatory, the HFEA and the NHS credit high UK birth rates to higher-than-normal fertility rates for three non-traditional maternal categories: younger immigrant women, older females and low-income women. Even further, the improved quality of analytics on female fertility intent and decision making accompany an improved ability to predict and target the impact of family leave, social support, health care and other policies known to influence fertility behaviour (Thévenon, 2008). This paper assesses the political interpretation and policy making responses to increased knowledge about the UK baby boom that involve new comparisons, evaluations and options between multiple avenues for population replacement. It theorizes on the unique and combined effect of high birthrates and analytical capacities on the development of UK ideals for a national future and national policies aimed at ensuring the cultural integration and normalization of non-traditional family types.