Three Scenarios of Disintegration

It is hard to imagine any social scientist discussing the issue of international peace without mentioning the issue of war. Nor is it possible to discuss the topic of democracy without mentioning the topic of autocracy. As Giovanni Sartori rightly pointed out, we need to use contrary or opposite concepts in describing reality. Yet, students of European integration hardly ever mention the term disintegration. They prefer to talk about crisis, a more benign term that does not denote an opposite or contrary concept to integration. This paper will try to establish what disintegration may imply and how it can materialize. Three distinct scenarios of disintegration will be envisaged; an abrupt collapse of the European project; a failed jump to federation; and a slow erosion of cooperative arrangements resulting from benign neglect. The paper will assess the viability of these scenarios in the present-day political and economic context.