Explaining Reelection to the European Parliament: Expertise, Influence, and Intergroups

In this paper, we seek to identify the determinants of reelection of incumbent members of the European Parliament (MEPs) in the recent 2014 European Parliament (EP) election. Specifically, we investigate the attributes that national parties and voters value when assessing incumbent MEPs’ term in office: leadership, influence, experience, party loyalty, expertise, dedication, or visibility. In a hierarchical logistic regression model that accounts for selection onto national party electoral lists, we examine the impact of a variety of legislative activities; leadership positions in EP, party, and committee; seniority; and loyalty to the national party when voting on the EP floor. We also include a newly developed measure of legislative influence, namely MEPs’ centrality in legislative co-voting networks. Finally, we consider the extent to which the effects of these variables are conditional on ballot structure (preferential voting vs. closed party lists). Preliminary results highlight, in particular, the importance of policy expertise and influence for the electoral prospects of incumbent MEPs. The results for leadership and visibility are mixed, while party loyalty, experience, and dedication have no apparent effect.