Is Regionalism Contagious? Explaining Regionalist Party Success in Europe

Why do some regions in Western Europe have regionalists, or sub-state nationalists, actively seeking autonomy, while other regions have dormant or nonexistent groups? Using spatiotemporal regression models, I evaluate whether regionalist party success is contagious to other regions. In the run-up to the Scottish independence referendum, commentators discussed the potential for a domino effect on other regions, such as northern Italy Catalonia, and Flanders. Beyond this specific case, it is likely that the success of regionalist parties in one region depend in theoretically interesting ways on the success of parties in other regions. In addition, I compare two forms of preference heterogeneity, economic and cultural, to determine which type, or combination, of preference difference is more significant for explaining regionalist mobilization. To test these hypotheses, I compiled a dataset including all regions in western Europe from 1977-2010, combining electoral, economic and cultural data collected at the regional, national and European levels.