The Impact of the Economic Environment on the Electoral Success of Regionalist Parties in Belgium

A few months before the emergence of the global financial crisis, the Belgian federal elections of June 2007 confirmed the quasi-disappearance of regionalist and secessionist parties in the country. Seven years later, the federal elections of May 2014 witnessed the successful come-back of two regionalist parties (N-VA in Flanders and FDF in Brussels) that managed to enter regional governments. The N-VA even became Belgium’s largest political party.

This paper intends to explore the impact of the financial and economic environment on the electoral success of regionalist and secessionist parties in Belgium. Using data from election results, opinion polls and economic indicators, we will demonstrate the relationship between the economy and the performance of these parties over time and across the three main regions of Belgium.

In a second section of the paper, we will investigate whether the positions of these regionalist and secessionist parties, as well as the positions of mainstream parties, on decentralisation and demands for further regional autonomy have been strengthened by the economic and financial conditions. This comparative analysis over time and across regions will rely on data from party manifestos and coalition agreements.