European Elections in Times of Trouble - Crisis Effects on Voter Turnout in the 2014 European Parliament Elections

The severe economic and sovereign debt crisis in Europe has led to a massive decline in support for the European Union among its citizens, especially in the most affected member states. However, overall turnout in the recent European elections has remained comparatively stable. The central question of this paper, therefore, is how the economic downturn and the loss of public trust have been translated into participation in the 2014 European Parliament elections.

Existing research points in two different directions: On the one hand, the “mobilization hypothesis” assumes that tough economic times increase turnout, because citizens want to express their dissatisfaction. On the other hand, the “withdrawal hypothesis” suggests that disappointed citizens turn away from participating in politics. Applying a rational choice perspective, I propose that the latter best explains participation at the recent EP elections. Dissatisfied citizens have not been able to clearly attribute the economic downturn to a particular incumbent, but only to the EU as a whole. Thus, they choose to refrain from voting either due to attribution insecurity or as a form of political protest aiming to further delegitimize the EU.

Conducting multilevel regression analyses, the empirical findings support the “withdrawal hypothesis”. Active non-participation has occurred significantly more often in the crisis countries and among discontented citizens in other EU member states. This sign of alienation and withdrawal in times of economic hardship is highly worrying for the EU, since it relies on popular support and electoral participation for its legitimate governance and, ultimately, its continued existence.