Public Opinion on Energy Security in Europe: From Education to Manipulation?

A recent Eurobarometer survey found different levels of concern among the EU citizens about extraction of shale gas in their countries. The reasons discussed in the media range from environmental awareness about the risks of fracking to economic motivations to attract investment and stimulate growth. A systematic analysis of the sources of public support and opposition to the extraction of unconventional fossil fuels is still missing. Our study tests two competing hypotheses, both related to the notion of knowledge: i) citizen resistance to shale gas extraction results from perceived high environmental risks involved; and ii) special interests, domestic and foreign, manipulate public opinion, for or against fracking, by misrepresenting the associated costs and benefits, thus changing in their favor the popular assessments. Our empirical analysis starts with a cross-national exploration of data from 27 European nations to establish whether system level characteristics help explain the variation in public opinion and detest trends if any. We use data from the Flash Eurobarometer 360 released by the European Commission in January 2013. The analysis continues with an in-depth case study of Bulgaria, a country with low levels of environmental sensitivity and high vulnerability to corruption in public procurement. We explore the mechanisms through which the two hypothesized factors impacted citizens’ perceptions in the cases of building a new nuclear plant (Belene) and allowing shale gas exploration (by Chevron). Our conclusion sheds light on the role of education and special interest lobbying and campaigning in the public discourse on energy policy preferences.