European Security Strategy and Capability: Enablers and Constraints on EU Power?

European defense expenditures have been significantly declining over the last decade. Observers have declared the cuts unprecedented and destabilizing to European security. With the onset of the sovereign debt crisis, it appeared as though nothing could reverse the cuts. Even the 2011 Libya conflict, which revealed severe capability gaps in European force readiness, did not initiate significant spending reversals. US and NATO leaders have alternated between threats and pleas to increase spending, but to no effect in the absence of an existential and immediate threat to European security. Russia’s 2014 invasion of Eastern Ukraine appears to be a tipping point, a possible trigger for reversing military expenditures and prompting strategic capability reviews. There is variation across Europe, with Eastern European states reacting quickly with spending increases towards increasing conventional defenses, while Western Europe initially lagged-- until the shootdown of Flight MH17--after which Germany and Netherlands signaled a reversal of planned cuts and increase defense budgets. This chapter evaluates the planned expenditure reversals, the degree of spending increases, and the kinds of capability investments planned, as well as whether expenditure reversals reflect a short-term political response to public demands or a more lasting shift in leadership and strategic culture.