Saturday, April 16, 2016
Maestro B (DoubleTree by Hilton Philadelphia Center City)
Party switching, or changing one’s political party affiliation, is a surprisingly widespread and persistent phenomenon among elected parliamentarians (MPs) in old and new democracies alike, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe. This behavior may signal a lack of accountability and representation to voters, potentially weakens governments, or leads to premature elections. Why would MPs risk careers, prestige, and chances of reelection for uncertain payoffs? Contrary to conventional wisdom that this is an individual-level phenomenon, I find evidence for a group-based pattern of defection. I argue that MPs consider group-based incentives along with their individual ambitions when deciding whether or not to switch parties. This paper tests my arguments using the EAST PaC data for all Polish parliamentary candidates, roll call votes from the Sejm, a unique dataset featuring MPs’ parliamentary activities and affiliations, and qualitative evidence drawn from interviews with sitting and former Polish MPs. Analysis suggests that non-partisan group loyalties affect the likelihood of defection among MPs, rather than individuals’ career ambitions alone. This finding provides insight into the development and (in)stability of new democracies in the 21st century.
