Policy Retrenchment and Legitimacy, Feedback Mechanisms and Self-Interest. the Case of Swedish Disability Pension Reform in the 2000s

How and when does welfare policy affect the legitimacy of a policy from the citizen’s point of view? The article uses policy feedback literature to explore relationships between changes in welfare state generosity and citizens’ trust. It is hypothesized that citizens will react positively or negatively to generosity/retrenchment in policy reforms depending on whether they belong to a group that is more likely to be using the policy. Empirically, I use a very clear case of retrenchment: The inflow of early retirement beneficiaries has decreased from comparatively high levels, to almost zero during the first decade of the 2000s. The process is accompanied by decreasing general trust for the implementing agency Swedish Social Insurance Agency (SSIA) that is neither mirrored by changes in trust in any other agency in the same context, nor by trust changes for the Swedish state on the whole. The analysis shows a positive relationship between higher inflow and greater trust for SSIA, under control for sex, age, labor market status, subjective health status, political orientation and average trust index. During the generous era, older people are more positive towards the policy, whereas people politically to the right are more negative. During the restrictive era, middle-aged people (30-49), have lower trust than younger people whereas people with better subjective health have slightly higher trust. I conclude that more generous policy attracts greater trust, and that self-interest is a good predictor for group-support in the generous era, whereas the picture becomes more diffuse in the restrictive era.