Democracy and Development in the Interwar Period

Do democracies emerge and/or survive at a certain level of economic development? Do democracies emerge and/or survive at a certain level of education? Focusing on the interwar period as a crucial period featuring a steep rise and demise of democracies, this paper shows that the literacy rate, and not GDP per capita is the most important predictor of democracy. In the interwar period, democracy rarely appeared in countries with a literacy rate below 73 percent. When democracy emerged despite a low literacy rate it broke down in less than seven years, on average. While a certain literacy rate is almost necessary for the incidence and survival of democracy, there is no threshold level of GDP per capita that is necessary for the incidence or survival of democracy. However, above a GDP per capita of US$4,500 democracies in the interwar years became impregnable and could be expected to live forever. At least all of them have survived until now...