Social Policy Reform and the Civil Conflict in Ukraine

Much of the analysis of the civil conflict in Ukraine has focused either on external geopolitical relations, or on internal cultural cleavages. The predominant externally oriented analysis has focused on the role of Russia as an intervening force acting in response to Kiev's potential to strengthen ties to Europe. One consequence of the predominance of this analysis has been to discount causes of the conflict that are internal to Ukraine itself. Internally oriented analysis has often focused on cultural or historic divisions that are reflected in regional preferences for either an idealized Europe, or an equally idealized Russia. While accepting the pivotal role played by Russia, this paper seeks to turn the focus of the analysis to political, social, and economic dynamic within Ukraine. In particular, the paper seeks to investigate the relationship between social policy, inequality, and national cohesion, with a particular focus on the impact of social policy reforms both prior to, and in response to the conflict. The focal point of the analysis will be the impact of the 2011 pension reform program which created a multi-tiered pension system. Given that the pension program is the most significant social welfare program in Ukraine, the impact of these reforms are suprisingly underanalyzed.