One Cue but with Diverging Effects: Individual Differences in Sophistication, Cognitive Abilities and Ideology

Numbers are part and parcel of political issues and serve as one of the most important cues for citizens to make sense of politics. The understanding of how citizens make sense of numbers has been shaped by research on the anchoring and adjustment heuristic and showed that citizens when citizens are required to make an numerical estimate there is a strong tendency to rely upon an initial presented numerical. However, considerable heterogeneity has been found in the tendency to rely upon the numerical cues. Consequently, this study focuses upon the question to what extent individual differences condition the reliance upon cues. Using a survey experiment this study shows that especially ideological make-up is conditioning the reliance upon cues, whereby individuals rely upon cues that are in line with held attitudes and do not rely upon cues that are not in line with held attitudes. Besides, more sophisticated individuals are less likely to rely upon cues compared to low sophisticated and these effects remain robust when controlling for cognitive abilities. However, and most importantly, the effects sophistication cancel largely out when ideology is included suggesting that numerical cue-taking is mostly a process shaped by ideology.  The methodological and theoretical implications of these findings are discussed.