Salience, Path Dependency and the Advocacy Coalition Between the European Commission and the Danish Council Presidency: Why the EU Opened a Visa Liberalization Process with Turkey

On 21 June 2012 the European Commission received the political mandate to start the visa liberalization process with Turkey in return for Ankara’s readiness to implement a readmission agreement that obliges Turkey to take back illegal immigrants who have used Turkey as a transit country on their way to the European Union. This is puzzling because, in February 2011, due to the reluctance of several member states, the Council refused this linkage and invited the Commission to start a visa dialogue which just includes possible facilitations of the visa procedure for certain group of persons, but not the target of visa exemptions. The aim of this article is to analyse the factors which have contributed to the position change in the Council. Based on a process tracing analysis and interviews with officials of the European Commission and several member states, I, first, argue that the need to cooperate with Turkey in the management of illegal migration flows and the norms of procedure, once established in the readmission negotiations with the Balkan countries, have strengthened the agenda setting power and influence of the European Commission who supports Turkey’s request for a visa liberalization process. Second, I argue that the argumentative power of the European Commission met favourable context conditions during the Danish Council Presidency that contributed to the breakthrough of the negotiations.

Thus, this case study contributes to several aspects of political, empirical and theoretical interest. First, the EU accession process of Turkey has lost momentum; public EU support in Turkey has dramatically declined. However, the successful negotiation of a readmission agreement and the opening of the visa liberalization process show that progress is still possible. The visa liberalization process could build up new reciprocal trust and re-energise the flagging accession process. Second, the management of migration flows has become one of the most pressing issues for the EU. The now decided deeper cooperation with Turkey could contribute to significantly decrease the illegal border crossings at the EU’s external border between Greece and Turkey. Third, studies about the development of the EU’s visa policy are still rare. The enforcement of a visa liberalization process with Turkey against the will of a couple of member states, illustrates the influence of the European Commission in a policy field which touches the core of national sovereignty. Fourth, the influence of Council Presidencies, in particular smaller member states, is controversially discussed. By adding a focus on the advocacy coalition between the European Commission and the Council Presidency, this case study contributes to the theoretical studies on institutional relationships within the EU. Whereas most studies about the relationship between Council and Commission highlight either the power of the Commission towards the member states or the role of the Council Presidency within Council, this papers shows how the synergies between the Commission and the Council Presidency are able to overcome the opposition of some EU member states.