Economic Downturns and Public Support for the Welfare State

In this paper we test what repercussions economic downturns have on individuals’ thoughts about the welfare state. Theoretically we identify four possible attitudinal trajectories. First, it is possible that worsening economic conditions give rise to increasing support for the welfare state because in bad times the welfare state is needed more often and by more people. Secondly, however, one could expect that support for the welfare state could decline because recession may lower expectations and eliminate pressure for improvements, or because crisis consciousness increases. Third, one could imagine that economic problems could stimulate resentment towards the welfare state: People become less willing to share their income. Finally, we hypothesise that worsening economic conditions strengthen attitudinal cleavages, especially between those who assume to benefit from the welfare state and those who perceive to give in more than they get out from it.

We test these assumptions in the context of an economic downturn in fall 2008 with two data sources. First we use ESS data in the format of time series sorted by the date of the interview. Secondly we use national Danish time series data collected at various points during the economic crisis, in particular a contrast between two surveys in 2007 and 2011, and a panel 2009-11.

The results indicate that on average the recession of 2008 has had a positive rather than a negative effect on support for the welfare state in Europe, but in Denmark we also find a significant impact of lower expectations and crisis consciousness.