Saturday, March 15, 2014
Capitol (Omni Shoreham)
The possibility of a British withdrawal – a Brexit – from the EU has helped resurrect fears of the break-up of the EU and European disunity. The prospect of withdrawal by any member state – including Britain, despite its reputation as ‘an awkward partner’ – would raise questions about the EU as a project ‘laying the foundation of an ever-closer union among the peoples of Europe.’ While the possibility of a British withdrawal remains open to debate, it is clear the potential implications for the UK woudl be more serious than those for the EU. Nevertheless, there are clear dangers for the EU. A withdrawal would open a Pandora’s Box of short and longer term problems, which some worry could unleash centrifugal forces breaking up the EU. The paper examines existing analyses into what impact a UK withdrawal, or a withdrawal of any member state, could have on the EU. It explores what theories of European integration and European disintegration/de-Europeanisation, can tell us about the potential impact of a UK withdrawal. It asks whether such a development holds the potential to resurrect old divisions in Europe. Or whether European integration, combined with developments such as globalisation limit this possibility, or mean it would continue, albeit through the resurrection of older alternative models. The paper builds on research undertaken in Berlin at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik for a soon to be published paper ‘Europe without Britain,’ examining the implications for the EU of a British withdrawal.
