Friday, March 14, 2014
Calvert (Omni Shoreham)
The main aim of this paper is to propose scenarios of the future composition of ISCED qualifications and skills for the European Union for 2025 from the perspective of quantity and equality. Wel present narrative scenarios of the future education and skills from the perspective of quantity and equality of education. The scenarios in this paper grow from the body of research produced within NEUJOBS, which examined various aspects of education systems and training. Specifically, the research focused on the issue of equality in education, mass higher education, lifelong learning, job polarization and low-skillness. We propose three scenarios for the future composition of qualifications and skills. The “Business as Usual” scenario is based on the extrapolation of the current trends and assumes a modest convergence towards the international educational model promoted by OECD. Policy response to the financial crisis sets Europe on two different pathways. In the “OECD Dream” scenario, countries massively intervene in their educational systems to increase the equality of educational opportunities and secure education for everyone. In the “Backlash” scenario, countries give in to fiscal pressures and search for cost-effective solutions to provision of public education. There is a growing divergence between countries in both the quantity and equality of education.
