Contemporary Democratic Separatist Movements: Theory of Separatist Referendums

A formal model of the strategic interaction that occurs between a democratic nation-state, and a constituent region of that state that seeks to become independent through democratic means. The strategic players are (1) the nation-state and (2) the region seeking independence. Voters are treated as an exogenous condition that either delivers a majority or a minority for the separatist cause. Two variants of the model are presented, to account for two dispositions that democratic states may present when faced with a domestic separatist movements. Type `alpha' states value the perception of democratic legitimacy over the recognition of the central state's sovereign authority. Type `beta' states prioritize these oppositely. The model demonstrates that an observation of state behavior is insufficient to determine whether such a state places more value on its own democratic legitimacy, or on its sovereign authority. The model is motivated by independence referendums in Scotland in 2014 and Catalonia in 2017, but describes the phenomena is general terms.