Technology (and Education) Against Politics: Technological Change, Education Upsurge Slowdown, and the Rightward/Populist Shift of Politics and Policy

This paper will explore what factors explain why the “center of gravity” in politics in industrial democracies has shifted to the right. In other words, why have voters and political parties generally shifted rightward in the last three to four decades. Globalization has been suggested as one broad mechanism that might explain this pattern. This paper will explore technological change and education upsurge slowdown as alternative and/or supplemental explanations for the rightward shift of politics and policies. Technological change over the last decades has reduced demand for the less-skilled and increased demand for the highly-skilled. Its effects were held back for a time by education upsurge, but, with the education upsurge slowdown, the effects of technological change have been fully felt. This technologically-and-educationally-driven underlying shift in income from the poor to the rich can undermine working-class support for the left. From the perspective of poorer voters, even when center-left governments increase redistribution to the poor, technological change can cancel out much or all of its effects. Because voters are generally not sophisticated enough to account for the effects of technological change, center-left voters will be under the illusion that center-left parties are less successful than they actually are. This political/policy illusion can discourage support by center-left and center voters for center-left politics and policies. As voter support shifts right, political parties and public policy follow. This paper will use data on technological change, education change, and voting behavior change to test these hypotheses.