Data on migration in key workforces show that in key social sectors such as higher education and health professions the UK has been a major importer of skilled labor, benefitting from the dysfunctions of public sectors in other EU member states. Brexit will disrupt European labor markets in these areas. It could limit “brain drain” that is problematic for some countries. But it is likely to be negative-sum for the continent if the result is that skilled workers underemployed outside the UK lose access to the UK labor market, while the UK is forced to pay global market rates for skilled labor or train its own workers.
Second, the UK was a leader of a bloc of liberal states. Post-Brexit, the future of EU social policy will be shaped by the loss of the UK as a pillar of a “northern” block of states with liberal preferences for EU law, fewer strategic options for Germany and more power for France, even more marginalization for the preferences of non-Eurozone states, and a potential shift towards more of a reliance on social partnership and managed markets in EU law. The result should be to put competitiveness, austerity, and regulatory policies under considerable pressure.
