Democratization in Dark Times: The Case of Central European Backsliding to Populist Illiberalism

The recent electoral success of populists worldwide has been explained by 1) emphasizing the socio-economic profile of certain groups of voters or 2) by focusing on cultural changes perceived as destabilizing. We reconciles the two types of demand-side explanations by using a new set of cases — the Central European countries members of the EU. We solve an empirical puzzle: why is it that some but not other Central European countries have recently reversed to populist illiberalism? Countries such as Poland and Hungary, which had been democratization success stories in the first two decades of their transitions have began to quickly and decisively dismantle the countries' checks and balances. Yet, others, such as the Czech Republic but also Romania and Bulgaria (which had been democratization laggards) have not ta! ken an illiberal turn. We use multilevel analysis on electoral and macro-economic and political data from 2002-2016. We argue that popular disenchantment with some of the socio-economic results of certain countries' EU membership have created a political opportunity for parties looking to re-negotiate not only Poland and Hungary’s place in the EU but also Poland and Hungary's political and market regimes since all three are perceived to have been the work of the same liberal elites. We contribute to the relevant literature by adding new cases and synthesizing previously competing explanations.