Pyrrhic Victory or Just Bad Timing? the Influence of ‘Uploading' EU Social Standards On the Ratification of Ilo Conventions

From the mid-1980s, the average number of ratifications for newly adopted ILO conventions has declined sharply. There are two competing explanations for this phenomenon: one established narrative holds that with the end of the Cold War and the predominance of neo-liberal economic policies, the perceived relevance of the ILO has diminished, resulting in a lack of support for new labour standards. On the other hand, Kissack has argued that there is a striking negative correlation between the intensity of EU influence in the drafting of ILO conventions and the number of ratifications. The EU is thus seen as winning a ‘pyrrhic victory’ by successfully exporting its high standards and thereby causing the lack of willingness of other states to ratify such conventions.

The paper analyzes the ratification rate over time of all 63 up-to-date ‘technical’ ILO conventions adopted between 1946 and 2007 and qualifies the assumptions of a causal link between EU standards being ‘uploaded’ into ILO conventions and the resistance of states to ratify them. Although high EU influence at the drafting stage is a sufficient (but not necessary) condition of low ratification numbers, the peak of EU influence coincides with the crisis years between the mid-1980s and -90s and may thus simply indicate ‘bad timing’, i.e. the spurious correlation between EU input and decline in ratifications caused by other factors. Moreover, ratification patterns are similar for EU and non-EU states, begging the question why EU member states would fail to ratify their own standards.