Angela Merkel's Leadership at a Crossroads

Chancellor Angela Merkel has led Germany since 2005, in coalition with both the Free Democrats and the Social Democrats. Under Merkel the Christian Democrats have seen one of their best election results in 2013, as well as one of their worst in 2017. Merkel’s abilities to campaign and form a governing coalition represent just one side of her leadership. She has also overseen the rescue of the euro, allowed vast numbers of migrants into Germany, and re-oriented her party on a range of issues from energy policy to family policy. By moving her party to the left, she opened political space for the rise of the right-wing populist party, the Alternative for Germany.

This paper assesses Merkel’s leadership at this critical moment in German history. Internationally, Merkel must govern Germany as the European Union goes through Brexit, while dealing with an increasingly authoritarian Russia and an increasingly erratic United States. Domestically, she confronts a fragmenting party system and the difficulties of integrating the new migrant population, among other issues. Most commonly Merkel has governed with caution, testing the political winds before committing to a particular direction. At times, however, such as in response to the Fukushima accident and the refugee crisis, she has shown bolder leadership. This paper analyzes her past decision-making behavior in an effort to predict when we might expect a politics-as-usual approach and when she might exhibit bolder leadership.